Wednesday, November 18, 2020

What's in a Playoff Format? (And a Brief International Review)

Our neighbors in Central America have been devastated by two horrific hurricanes in as many weeks. Before reading this post, please consider donating to one of the relief efforts linked in this thread.

Now that the international break has ended, football fans in Concacaf turn their focus towards two major events: The Liga MX playoffs and the MLS Cup playoffs. The region's two largest leagues will both resume this weekend with new play-in rounds that have expanded each tournament beyond what it has been in previous years.

This prompts the question among fans: How big is too big for the playoffs? Of course, these expansions were supposed to be a measure to make up for lost revenue during the pandemic, but I don't think fans of either league would be particularly surprised if the changes are here to stay.

Let's start with Liga MX. As a Tigres fan, my first thought upon seeing the expansion to 12 teams (up from 8) was that this change was awful. Tigres already rarely missed the liguilla, and while I don't ever actually want that to happen, there has to be a chance that it happens, or what fun is the regular season? Even during our terrible stretch in the beginning of the year, the fans joked about how it was fine because there was no way we finished outside the top 12.

But as the season went on and the race for the top 4 (and a precious bye) heated up, the idea grew on me a little. That first wildcard round or play-in round or whatever you want to call it is one leg and is going to be very random. Teams want to avoid it at all costs, which makes the race for the top 4 the compelling part of the regular season, while even the bottom half of the table now feels like they're in the playoff hunt for most of the year. And of course, we do get extra playoff games now. As much as expanded playoffs can potentially ruin a regular season, more playoff matches is always a lot of fun.

I still prefer the old 8/18 system (8/20 was even better!) but I can live with the change. Will it be permanent? This is not actually the first time Liga MX has done more than 8 teams in the postseason. For much of 2000s there used to be 10 playoff teams every season, but eventually the idea was scrapped when the league moved away from divisions and just did a single table. So maybe they actually will reduce it back down when fans are allowed back into the stadiums.

MLS loves their playoffs. For much of the league's existence the regular season has been a complete snoozefest for many fans because the playoffs are so inclusive. In 2020 that remains true, but obviously much moreso because of a certain global pandemic than anything the league decided on back in January. 10/14 teams in the Eastern Conference will head to the postseason, while 8/12 will qualify in the West. Again, I want to stress that MLS was put in a tough spot with so many games being cancelled that I can't blame them for putting almost the entire league into the playoffs.

And the playoffs, if they run smoothly (let's hope they do), will be a ton of fun! MLS is an anybody beats anybody league, and with every round being a one-off now this will have a real US (and Canada) Open Cup feel. I think this was ultimately the best solution for the strange 2020 season.

But, when there is a somewhat normal season next year, I think this number needs to come way down. In 2019, 7 teams from each conference qualified to the playoffs. I have expressed in the past that I still think that's too many, and especially so with the single elimination setup they have now. I don't really like that a team can fight for the #2 seed over a long 34-game season and then go home in the first round on a 0-0 draw where they lose the penalty shootout. I think in a season that long (remember Liga MX plays two short seasons instead) you need to have your playoffs be 2-legged or even revive the old 3 game series idea of MLS' past to give the better team more time to separate themselves. If they insist on the single-game format (and it is a lot of fun most of the time, I can't deny) then the playoffs should be shrunk way down so only the truly deserving teams have a crack at the title.

Anyway, enough about playoff formats, I also wanted to do a quick thought dump on the international break. Most of Concacaf's top teams were in action this week in some capacity, so I'm just going to run through each of them real quick.

Mexico have climbed into the top 10 in the FIFA rankings after comfortably beating South Korea and Japan. It's hard to argue that they aren't top of the region at the moment, and in both games they really turned it on in the second half. Tata Martino is doing a great job.

USA are an interesting one. The game against Wales was meh, and the game against Panama saw pockets of absolute brilliance but also some moments where they looked shaky. Obviously it was a very young and new team playing in a neutral site and I don't really know how much there is to glean from either of these games, but we can definitely all agree there is good reason to be excited about the future of the USMNT.

Costa Rica played very well against Qatar (a much tougher opponent than you may think), drawing 1-1 and completely controlling the second half. They dropped the second game of the window 2-1 to the Basque Country, meaning they finish 2020 winless. Not great. Costa Rica are definitely in the process of finding themselves, and while I expect them to get back to the World Cup I'm not convinced that they'll reach the heights of the 2014 and 2018 cycles.

Panama lost 1-0 to Japan in a game I admittedly did not watch, and then got shelled by the US 6-2. But they did have the lead against the Americans early, and pulled it back to 3-2 late before giving up another flurry of goals in the final 10 minutes. And that was the story for Panama. Two complete collapses where they were overwhelmed for a short stretch and paid dearly for it. Besides those two glaring weak moments, they looked decent enough. Panama are no longer a top 5 team in the region, but making the Octo is definitely doable.

Jamaica played Saudi Arabia twice, getting cleaned up the first game but bouncing back with a 2-1 victory in the rematch. I'm pretty sure the team was discombobulated and jet-lagged and out of practice leading up to the first game, and Saudi Arabia are a good team, so I won't hold it against them too much. Daniel Johnson scored a beauty in the second game, and Jamaica looked a lot more like the Jamaica we know can be one of the best teams in Concacaf.

I did not watch Honduras vs Guatemala :( 

As always, thank you for reading and stay healthy out there!