Why Costa Rica Wins the Gold Cup

Los Ticos have never won a Gold Cup title before (though they did win the old Concacaf Championship 3 times). They’ve only made it to the final once. The best player on the team and in the entire region, Keylor Navas, won’t be playing for them this month. And yet, they are my pick to win it all this time around. Here’s why.

The biggest factor that makes the time ripe for a Costa Rican title is that their opposition has never been weaker. Aside from Canada’s shock victory in 2000, the US and Mexico have cleaned up every trophy and are quite often the two finalists. The duopoly has held firm for 19 years. But as discussed, Mexico are missing as many as nine starters depending on who you ask, and the US are missing some key players of their own and also are just not good. Costa Rica can smell blood this year, and they have to be thinking with the current state of the Big 2 that they can win this summer.

Costa Rica are also getting a chance to host their opening match against Nicaragua. Now there was never much danger of the Ticos losing to Nicaragua or not getting out of this group, but the home field advantage stretches further than the one game where it physically exists. To be able to play and get what should be a comfortable victory in front of your home fans is a great momentum builder and extremely good for the mental fitness of this team. As the weeks of a major tournament pass on, the stress of it all can weigh heavily on a player’s mind more and more with each passing day. Costa Rica, in effect, don’t start undergoing that mental strain until a few days after everyone else, as the Nicaragua match should have the feel of a glorified send off.

Personnel wise, yes, the loss of Keylor Navas is tough. But it’s not crippling. At the World Cup, Costa Rica may need Navas’ heroics to bail them out against the best teams on the planet, but at the Gold Cup? The defense is more than capable of stifling the opposition without the help of a world class goalie. And for what its worth, Navas’ replacement Leonel Moreira is a solid player in his own right.

The strength of this side is a magical midfield, with the veteran trio of Bryan Ruiz, Christian Bolaños, and Celso Borges back to dazzle audiences once again. It’s a well oiled machine of beautiful ball movement and intelligent play. Yeltsin Tejeda can play more of a holding role behind them to great effect. Jimmy Marin can carve up most Concacaf defenses at will. The question mark is moreso who will be finishing the job. Álvaro Saborío is 37 now and well past his best. Nobody has much faith in Jonathan MacDonald. Joel Campbell didn’t have a particularly great year at León. But this core, especially with the addition of Marin, is going to create a lot of chances, and if the forwards can’t get it done then the midfield will have to score themselves. Kendall Waston is also a massive threat on corner kicks and set pieces. I'm confident that the goals will come from somewhere.

Though hardly a perfect squad, you have to remember the field is weaker than ever and Costa Rica have all the X-factors on their side. Somebody has to win, right? Are you putting your money on the team that just got smoked by Venezuela and Jamaica at home or Mexico’s B- team? I’ll take the Ticos, please.