Every year when the Concacaf Champions Leauge rolls around, the discussion is the same. Liga MX teams are the favorites, but can an MLS side break through and raise the trophy? It's a valid discussion, but also one you can find elsewhere on the internet, so instead I ask a different question. What will it take for a Central American team to win it all?
It may not be as impossible as it sounds. In fact, two Costa Rican teams have won the regional crown more recently than an MLS team, but of course that was all before the tournament was rebranded and reformatted as the Champions League. But even still, a lot of sides from outside the continent's "Big Two" leagues remain dangerous and relevant. In 2015 both Herediano and Alajuelense reached the semis, and for a brief moment it looked as though we were headed for an all-Costa Rican final.
It has become a bit of a Concacaf cliche to dub Saprissa as the best team in Central America before the CCL starts up; though they’re always near the top of the heap, we’ve seen the last few years they haven’t quite been the beast so many of us have made them out to be. In 2020 however, I think El Monstruo will live up to the hype. They come into the tournament with a talented squad including evergreen Concacaf boss Marvin Angulo and proven veteran goalscorer Johan Venegas. They've also got a growing star in Manfred Ugalde, and a favorable draw means they won't have to play a Liga MX team until the semifinals at minimum.
Saprissa just won the 2019 Concacaf League, playing through five grueling rounds of away trips that provide invaluable experience for a CCL run. The Champions League is all about the intangibles, and I cannot stress enough how useful the Concacaf League was for developing this team. Moments like the epic comeback against Olimpia and even having a bit of trouble against the Belmopan Bandits mentally prepare the team for the difficult matches to come and instill the confidence and mentality that they can climb out of those dire situations. And as I’ve said a million times at this point, on the logistical side, the club having just had a dress rehearsal where they booked flights, accommodations, etc. five times will help prevent any off the field nonsense from hurting their chances.
Earlier in the week I noted one of Tigres’ biggest advantages this year is a draw that sees them isolated from the rest of the Liga MX sides; Saprissa (and Honduran side Olimpia, who have the 2nd best odds from Central America this year) have that same benefit.
Saprissa have the Montreal Impact in the first round in a series where they are just straight up the favorites. The Impact have a CCL pedigree, having made the final back in 2015 and gotten awfully close to winning it, but they also were the 18th best team in MLS a year ago and are now without Ignacio Piatti. Saprissa will be in form and are a better team right now. Montreal is by no means a walk-over and the Canadians will also be looking at the bracket and licking their lips at a very makeable passage to the final, but I like Saprissa’s chances.
Now of course, to win the whole tournament you need more than an easy first round draw. Saprissa can’t expect to not have to upset a few teams along the way, but let’s look at the bigger picture here. Saprissa’s home record is outrageous. In fact, all Costa Rican clubs have an outrageous home record in the CCL (the last five MLS teams to travel to Costa Rica have all lost by at least 2 goals), but Saprissa even moreso.
El Monstruo Morado was a perfect 5 wins in 5 home matches in the Concacaf League title run. They even defeated Tigres 1-0 at home last year, though they came out flat in the second leg and went down without much of a fight. Even if they are the underdogs against Seattle, Tigres, or whoever comes after that, they’re almost always going to get a good result at home, reducing the 2nd leg to a very manageable game.
Let’s play the hypothetical game for a moment to visualize the odds: Montreal they should beat, then they have roughly a 25% chance of getting Olimpia (who they should also beat), or more likely an encounter with Seattle where I’d have them as underdogs by the slimmest of margins. Perfectly doable so far. Independiente a year ago had a very similar road and nearly qualified to the semifinals.
The final four is where it gets tricky. Most likely you’re getting Tigres, who did manhandle Saprissa a year ago at El Volcan. But as I said they did win the home leg a year ago, and their Liga FPD rivals Herediano gave Tigres a tough time three years in a row before that. If they get all the way to the final they’d again have another difficult series with most likely a Liga MX team, but at that point the momentum would be through the roof and I think you’d see a very inspired Saprissa side in that series.
Maybe you read that and said, “you know, that is reasonable.” Or maybe you read it and said “that’s exactly why they’ll never win.” And I think it’s fine to believe either way; it’s all a matter of perspective. If you firmly believe this is a Liga MX tournament, I’m not going to argue with you and neither are the results. But if you think this is a tournament that MLS teams can conceivably win (as I do), then I think you need to recognize Saprissa’s chances as well.
The hypothetical odds game sounds like a convoluted mess (and it is), but I can assure you that every MLS team’s hypothetical is equally convoluted. All LAFC has to do is beat 4 Liga MX teams in a row. NYCFC cannot play their matches at Yankee Stadium and has to deal with Tigres. Atlanta is getting thrown against the best team on the continent in the second round. These teams winning is *also* unlikely, and I think it’s important to shake off any biases you may have against the smaller leagues of the region and recognize that the best Central American teams, Saprissa this year, Independiente a year ago, Herediano and Alajuelense in 2015, have as good a chance as anyone outside Liga MX.
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